Different ways to be right.
Not all prediction is the same act. Each format tests a different edge: reading the crowd, ranking the order, or settling a private argument with stakes.
The Market Formats
Navigate by edge
Consensus Markets
What will most people choose?
Everyone stakes an option. At close, the majority option wins and backers split the pool by stake size.
Prisoner's Dilemma
Trust is finite.
A strategy format for groups that want cooperation, pressure, and reveal timing to matter as much as the final answer.
Reflex Signal Test
Five seconds. One take.
The window opens fast. Pattern recognition and social calibration matter more than overthinking the room.
Prediction Ladder
Rank it. In order. Exactly.
Arrange all outcomes in the exact sequence. If nobody hits the full order, the N-1 fallback rewards the closest correct arrangement.
Private Markets
Settle it with stakes.
Create a market, share a link, and let the group stake. Calls stay hidden until close and settlement is automatic.
Consensus Divergence
The minority wins.
A contrarian format where the unpopular read can become the sharpest signal in the room.
Choose the market
Pick the format that matches your edge: crowd read, exact order, or private room.
Lock your call
Stake with M-Pesa. Your choice stays hidden until the market closes.
Settle the record
At close, the record shows the winners, the payout, and the 5% fee.